Friday, March 16, 2012

Parris Island Predictions

My first race of the season is this Saturday at Parris Island. Love the race. Do it almost every year.

I’m feeling good. My training has been strong. In fact, in the first 10 weeks of 2012, I’ve trained slightly more, and harder, in all three disciplines than I did in the previous two years (according to my training logs). Theoretically, I should be able to duplicate last’s year’s times, if not exceed. But I’m not so sure. Why is that, you ask? Because I’m getting fat.

That’s right, I’m racing 10 lbs heavier than I’ve ever raced. At 6’2” I82 lbs, I don’t wear moo moos or use a dialing wand (a la Homer Simpson), but this is the heaviest I’ve been in 10 years. I recently had the humbling experience of taking a pair of pants to the dry cleaners to have them ‘let out’ an inch. I’ve moved up a hole in my belt. In fact, when I sit down, I can feel my gut on my belt. Good God I have a muffin top!!!

But the most alarming part of it is that I cannot cut this extra weight – no matter how much I train!

Age, and gravity, are constants in the universe
I always enter the new year a few lbs heavier than my average race weight of 172 lbs. But by March, I’m right back at my fighting weight and have no trouble maintaining it through the summer. I’ve noticed over the years it’s taken a little longer each year to get that excess weight off. But this year is different. It’s been an epic battle. I can’t get below 180 lbs. And I’m afraid that extra weight is going to slow me down a good bit. There is a scientific equation that backs up that theory, but I’m too fat and lazy to look it up.

Here is my race prediction, based on my training:

  • 500 mtr swim 9:20
  • T1 50 secs
  • 10 mile bike 30:00
  • T2 50 secs
  • 5k run 20:50
  • Total: 1.01:47
We’ll see how it goes…

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